The Sound of Hype: What Does It Mean To Be #1?

The BBC has once again solicited the opinions of the UK music industry to create a list of individuals considered most "promising" for the coming year. This year, Essex native Jessie J was crowned #1. In the words of the BBC, Jessie J is ready to ascend to the "next level of quality and recognition" in 2011.

However, perusing previous winners since the list's inception nine years ago reveals fascinating disparities that challenge that proclamation, as well as raise questions about the value of topping this list. For one point of comparison, let's look at the Metacritic scores of the debut albums of each year's #1 pick with that year's #5 pick. (Note: For the 2007 list, #3 pick Klaxons was used because neither the #4 nor the #5 pick had their debuts listed on Metacritic). Averaging the scores of each of the eight years' #1 picks and the #5 picks reveal that the average score for the #5 picks' debut was eleven points higher (77/100) than the #1 picks' (66/100) (a statistically significant difference, by the way, with p=.002).  

In every single year the #5 pick received a higher Metacritic score on their debut album than the #1 pick. Fascinatingly, when the same comparison is made between each year's #2 pick with that year's #1 pick, the #2 picks had debut albums with a Metacritic score on average eight points higher (74/100). (Note: In what is perhaps a telling mark of a particularly unpromising year, 2007's #3 pick Klaxon's debut was again used for this comparison because the #2 pick, The Twang, did not have their debut listed on Metacritic. On a side note, 2007 also had the lowest Metacritic-scored debut of a #1 pick (55/100 by Mika) in the list's history).

So why the surprising inverse relationship? If those polled are indeed picking their "favourite" new artists, why are the acts everyone seems the most excited about, the ones that get the top spot, ultimately viewed less favorably than the other picks?

Perhaps a look at another variable--chart position--can illuminate why coming first in the BBC poll does not put an artist at a critical advantage. Even though they are instructed not to base their decisions on "hype or size of record deal," but rather on "quality," choosing the "best, most exciting" upcoming acts, it is possible that the individuals polled tend to gravitate toward acts they deem the most likely to succeed in terms of sales, and not in critical acclaim. Indeed, when one compares the average peak UK Album Chart position of the debut album of each year's #1 pick with each year's #5 pick, one sees an average seven chart placement difference between the top picks' debuts (#2) and the #5 picks' debuts (#9). 

Perhaps it is worth looking at who is doing the picking, instead. Although it is worth noting that music critics alone do not comprise the selectors for each year's list (with presenters, producers, editors and bloggers also included), one might assume that their opinions would not deviate dramatically from those of the others, seeing as how they are all included under the "tastemaker" umbrella by the BBC. However, "quality" and "promising" are vague--an act likely to succeed in the mind of a critic might naturally involve receiving higher review scores, whereas sales might be the marker of success for a producer or editor. If less critics than insiders are polled, acts more likely to succeed commercially, but not necessarily critically, would chart higher (however there are wrinkles: Consider Lady Gaga's #6 placing in 2009). Indeed, in this year's poll, only 25 out of the 161 solicited (about 15%) were labeled "Writers and Critics."

Of course, one must also consider the role of the poll results themselves on the buying public. The poll is as much about prediction as it is influence. Even still, artists like Little Boots and The Bravery are proof that coming in first in the poll does not equal huge chart success, as both their debut albums peaked at number five in the charts (compared to the mass of #1 debuts by the other top picks).

So what can be learned from all of this? Despite occasional exceptions, based on averages in the poll's (albeit brief) history, bet on Jessie J getting the sales while Clare Maguire gets the accolades. Yes, getting #1 in the poll does mean something, but maybe not quite what it claims to mean.